Lok Sabha Polls 2024: Here is why parties are chasing the minority vote in Kerala’s Lok Sabha elections

Kerala’s political landscape is heating up as parties vie for minority votes, with the BJP emerging as a strong contender against the Congress-led UDF and the CPM-led LDF. According to the 2011 Census, Muslims and Christians together account for 44.9% of Kerala’s population, making their support crucial in the upcoming elections.
The intense focus on minority issues in Kerala’s political arena is not surprising, given that Muslims and Christians together constitute 44.9% of the state’s population, according to the 2011 Census. Political parties believe this figure has only increased in recent years.

Significance of Minority Votes
The aggressive pursuit of minority issues is evident, as parties recognize the importance of this voter segment.

In the larger Malabar region, which comprises eight constituencies from Palakkad to Kasaragod, all seats have over 25% Muslim population. For example, Kasaragod has approximately 30.8% Muslim population, Kannur has around 26%, Vadakara has 31.2%, Kozhikode has 36.7%, Wayanad has 41%, Malappuram has a staggering 68%, Ponnani has 62.4%, and Palakkad has 29.4% Muslim population.

Christian Influence

When the Christian community is taken into consideration, 13 out of the state’s 20 seats have a minority population share of over 35%. Six seats in the state have a Christian population share of over 20%, with the highest being in Idukki at 41.8% and Pathanamthitta at 39.6%.

Electoral Impact
The state’s electoral history shows that minority voting behavior can significantly impact election outcomes. In the 2019 parliamentary elections, the UDF won 19 out of 20 seats, driven by the consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes. However, in the 2021 assembly elections, the LDF tasted success in its minority outreach, securing 99 seats and reducing the UDF to 41 seats.

Focus on Minority Concerns
Both the UDF and LDF are focusing on concerns about the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), the National Register of Citizens (NRC), and the BJP’s promise of a uniform civil code. The Congress is positioning itself as the primary opponent to the BJP, emphasizing its pan-India presence. Meanwhile, the CPM is questioning the Congress’s trustworthiness and highlighting defections from Congress to BJP.

Christian Voting Patterns
In Kerala’s political landscape, Christian voters have traditionally been a guaranteed vote bank for the UDF. However, the absence of leaders of Oommen Chandy’s stature has made it challenging for the UDF to maintain its relationship with church leaders. While many church denominations are unhappy with the LDF government, it remains unclear if they will fully tilt towards the UDF this time.

Kerala is home to over 50 lakh Syro-Malabar Catholics, with around 5-6 lakh residing abroad. The strongholds of the church include Ernakulam, Chalakkudy, Thrissur, Kottayam, Mavelikkara, and Pathanamthitta. Additionally, certain pockets in Vadakara, Calicut, and Kannur have a strong Christian presence. Latin Catholics, who are prominent in coastal areas, have also raised concerns with the state government and the opposition.

“Based on the response to our demands from either parties, we will take a final decision,” said Sherry J Thomas, state president of Kerala Latin Christian Association in TOI report. There are around 20 lakh Latin Catholics and are a force to reckon with in the coastal areas of Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha and Kochi.

Influence of Church Leaders
Leaders like the late Oommen Chandy had close ties with church leaders, but the current UDF lacks leaders of similar stature to maintain these relationships. The stance of various church denominations, including the Syro-Malabar church and the Latin Catholics, could also influence voting patterns.

Fr Antony Vadakkekara VC, the public relations officer of the Syro-Malabar church, emphasized that the church does not take a political stand during elections. He stated, “We only want all our members to exercise their voting rights. They are free to decide who to vote for.”

The church has highlighted several issues for Christian voters to consider, including human-animal conflict, the fall in rubber prices, the LDF government’s liquor policy, the Centre’s approach towards the farmers’ strike, backdoor appointments in public services, and the alleged persecution of Christians in Manipur and other places.

Other Factors
The feud between the Orthodox and Jacobite factions of the Malankara church is a decisive factor in constituencies like Ernakulam, Pathanamthitta, and Mavelikkara. While the Orthodox church has not taken a public stand, Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s recent speech favoring the Church Act during a Jacobite church function in Kochi has stirred controversy.

Influence of Church Factions
The presence of various Pentecostal groups, especially in Pathanamthitta and Mavelikkara, adds to the complexity of the electoral dynamics. Similarly, the Mar Thoma church in Pathanamthitta and the CSI church in Idukki are also influential denominations that could impact voting patterns.

Political Implications
These church feuds and denominational dynamics could have significant political implications, as parties seek to align themselves with different factions to secure votes. Understanding these nuances is crucial for political parties vying for support in Kerala’s diverse religious landscape.

As the election approaches, political parties in Kerala are intensifying their efforts to secure minority votes, recognizing the significant impact these votes can have on the election outcome.

(With inputs from TOI)