The INDIA bloc of Opposition parties was off to a flying start last year as most parties put up a show of unity, convinced that an opposition alliance was the best weapon against the ruling BJP-led NDA. But it started developing cracks as the Lok Sabha elections drew nearer and parties began discussing seat-sharing arrangements. West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC head Mamata Banerjee decided her party will contest the elections alone. Bihar CM and JDU leader Nitish Kumar, the man who had galvanised different opposition parties to stitch an alliance, himself left the INDIA bloc and joined hands with the BJP, and so did Jayant Chowdhury’s RLD in Uttar Pradesh. In Kerala, the left front and Congress are fighting against each other and has not recahed any deal in West Bengal either. While Congress and the AAP were able to share seats in Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, Chandigarh and Goa, in Punjab they remain the chief opponents in the absence of a seat-sharing deal. At best, the INDIA bloc can be described as an alliance with deep cracks.
But now, in a rare show of unity, various opposition leaders, especially those from the Congress, have come out in support of Kejriwal. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has openly defended Kejriwal and is also going to meet his family today as a show of support. AAP leader and Delhi minister Saurabh Bharadwaj has thanked opposition leaders including Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi, MK Stalin and Akhilesh Yadav for “the love they have shown for Kejriwal ji”.
It seems the opposition parties have decided to sink their differences and mobilise in support of Kejriwal. Will this show of unity help the INDIA bloc or damage it?
The Congress-AAP chemistry
When the AAP joined the INDIA bloc, it meant it will have to share seats with Congress in Punjab, where both are direct opponents, and in Delhi where they are in a three-cornered fight along with the BJP. The prospect of being in alliance made state workers and leaders of both the parties uneasy because they were seen as bitter opponents in these two states. The Congress leaders in Punjab as well as Delhi vociferously opposed the alliance as they saw little benefit from it. Many senior Congress leaders also criticised Kejriwal for his alleged role in the Delhi liquor ‘scam’. The Congress cadre in Delhi as well as Punjab saw benefitting from corruption charges against Kejriwal and other AAP leaders.The two parties decided to go it alone in Punjab where they are locked in a direct contest since the BJP is a bit player and Shiromani Akali Dal is down in the dumps, but struck a deal in Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, Chandigarh and Goa where they hoped pooling of their respective votes will give them an edge over the BJP. But Kejriwal’s arrest now has introduced a new factor in their electoral calculations. How will Kejriwal’s arrest impact INDIA bloc
Open support by INDIA bloc parties for Kejriwal is based on the assumption that it will translate into strengthening of the anti-BJP vote. The arrest has also given a common cause to the alliance which has been divided by various faultlines. It will help INDIA block parties paper over their differences and put up a show of unity once again after the TMC, the JDU and the RLD split off from the bloc.
The issue can also help opposition parties mobilise their cadre who have been demoralised over constant internal wranglings among alliance members. In Kerala, the differences between the left front and the Congress have exploded with leaders accusing each other of splitting the the anti-BJP vote by fielding candidates against each other. Even in Rahul Gandhi’s constituency, Wayanad, the CPI has fielded its own candidate where they will be in direct contest as the BJP has little support in the constituency.
For once, Kejriwal’s arrest will shift the focus away from internal differences of the INDIA bloc and mobilse their cadre against the BJP.
But this may not work in Punjab where the Congress and the AAP are locked in a bitter contest. The Congress coming out to defend Kejriwal will only spread confusion among cadres of both the parties. The Congress workers and leaders, who have been sharpening their attack on the AAP government, will feel desprited.
Traditionally, the AAP has grown at the cost of Congress. In Punjab, where it rules, it will only gain from the confusion among the Congress cadre. In Delhi, Congress and the AAP, which are into a three-cornered contest with the BJP, hope that their anti-BJP votes will pool which can pose a significant challenge to the BJP. However, even in Delhi, the workers on the ground will find it hard to canvass for the AAP after Kejriwal’s arrest which taints the supreme leader of the party.
In the states where the Comgress is stronger than the AAP such as Haryana, Gujarat and Goa, the BJP can gain from Congress supporting a tainted leader. hoping that the anti-Congress vote will crystallise further. In Telangana, the BJP can hope to make gains from the Congress supporting Kejriwal. The Delhi liquor ‘scam’ has made news in Telangana, with the recent arrest of BRS leader and former chief minister K Chandrashekar Rao’s daughter K Kavitha who is allegdly part of the Delhi liquor ‘scam’, the Congress defending Kejriwal might damage its prospects. Last year, Rahul Gandhi had cited Delhi liquor ‘scam’ to accuse then chief Minister Rao of being under “remote control” of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.”Telangana and its youth should understand one thing that KCR is under the control of Prime Minister Modi because of his corruption activities. The corruption he did in the liquor scam, is known to all agencies,” Gandhi had said at a public meeting in Telangana.
While who gains at the cost of whom will only be known when the election results come out, Kejriwal’s arrest has galvanised the INDIA bloc and given it an issue it can use to paper over its internal differences.
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